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Texas housing manufacturers expect rebound in early 2023Texas housing manufacturers expect rebound in early 20232022-12-09T06:00:00Z

COLLEGE STATION, Tex. (Texas Real Estate Research Center) – After booming during the COVID-19 pandemic, the manufactured-housing correction continued as business activity slipped for the eighth consecutive month, according to the November edition of the Texas Manufactured Housing Survey.

All respondents noted a decrease in month-over-month sales, and the production index remained in negative territory. The number-of-employees index fell to its lowest level on record, indicating payroll reductions as manufacturers adjusted operations, and average work weeks fell accordingly.

“Activity in the overall housing sector has stalled as a result of the Federal Reserve's interest rate increases, and manufactured housing is not immune to the slowdown," said Dr. Harold Hunt, research economist for the Texas Real Estate Research Center. “The consensus is that rate hikes will continue into 2023, albeit at a slower pace, resulting in a generally negative short-term outlook for housing and housing-adjacent industries."

Despite current challenges, optimism over the next six months turned positive across multiple indicators. Manufacturers anticipate activity to rebound in 2023 through higher sales and production, and out-of-state shipments should pick up after stalling since May.

“Sales to retailers are subdued by downstream inventory constraints, particularly as floor plan lenders pulled back overage amounts and credit dried up earlier this year," said Rob Ripperda, vice president of operations for the Texas Manufactured Housing Association. “Fortunately for manufacturers, end-consumer sales are holding up relatively well and are still on pace to finish the year above 2021 levels. Higher housing costs across the board appear to be pulling consumers into the manufactured-home market, and the industry's affordability advantage remains a source of optimism."  

Manufacturers anticipate additional supply-chain smoothing, leading to lower costs for raw materials and downward pressure on sale prices. While the clouds may be clearing for a rebound in early 2023, looming regulatory changes and general macroeconomic uncertainty remain the primary headwinds to the industry.

Funded by Texas real estate licensee fees, TRERC was created by the state legislature to meet the needs of many audiences, including the real estate industry, instructors, researchers, and the public. 

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Thousands of pages of data are available at the Center's website. News is available in our twice-weekly electronic newsletter RECON, our Real Estate Red Zone podcast, our daily NewsTalk Texas feed, on Facebook, on Twitter, on LinkedIn, and on Instagram. To request a free press subscription to our quarterly flagship periodical TG magazine, contact David Jones at the e-mail address above.

 

Subscribe to Center news releases here.​​

https://mailchi.mp/mays/housing-manufacturers-expect-rebound-in-early-202307-1222
TRERC welcomes new research economist, senior data analyst TRERC welcomes new research economist, senior data analyst 2022-11-16T06:00:00Z

COLLEGE STATION, Tex. (Texas Real Estate Research Center) – Dr. Daniel Oney and Mallika Natarajan have joined the staff of the Texas Real Estate Research Center (TRERC) as a research economist and senior data analyst, respectively. 

Oney earned his MPA and Ph.D. degrees from the University of Texas at Dallas. Before joining the Center, Oney was an economic research manager for the City of Dallas and senior economist for the Virginia General Assembly. Most recently, he was managing director in Newmark’s Global Corporate Services division where he supported clients with site selection, labor analysis, and development strategy.  

At the Center, Oney will specialize in building forecasting and decision models to help public and private leaders make better economic and fiscal choices.  

Natarajan has a Masters in management information systems from Mays Business School at Texas A&M University. She most recently served as a data analyst with the University’s human resources department. At the Center, she will provide in-depth analyses using a myriad of data sources, including Multiple Listing Services. 

Dr. Daniel Oney, research economist; Mallika Natarajan, senior data analyst

Funded by Texas real estate licensee fees, the Texas Real Estate Research Center was created by the state legislature to meet the needs of many audiences, including the real estate industry, instructors, researchers, and the public. 

https://mailchi.mp/mays/trerc-welcomes-new-research-economist-senior-data-analyst?e=[UNIQID]06-1122
Rising interest rates, inflation hindering manufactured housing demandRising interest rates, inflation hindering manufactured housing demand2022-11-15T06:00:00Z

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COLLEGE STATION, Tex. (Texas Real Estate Research Center) – General business activity cooled for the seventh consecutive month, according to the October edition of the Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS).

Sales and production continued to correct as higher interest rates chilled demand after a two-year pandemic boom. Decreased demand pulled the price of finished homes downward, but inflation and borrowing costs hindered affordability.

“Mortgage rates have elevated significantly as a result of the Federal Reserve's rate increases," said Dr. Harold Hunt, research economist for the Texas Real Estate Research Center (TRERC). “The result has been a real hit to affordability across the housing sector. Although interest rates are typically higher for manufactured homes compared with site-built product, the much lower purchase price still gives manufactured housing a strong advantage in the affordable-housing niche."

While long-term fundamentals remain favorable to the manufactured housing industry, the fourth quarter is poised to be painful. The TMHS employment index declined for the fourth straight month, illustrating how companies have adjusted to decreased activity. For employees still on payroll, the average hours worked has declined for the past two quarters. These movements held labor costs constant after at least 28 consecutive months of increases (the TMHS was launched in June 2020).

“After reducing their headcount and total hours of operation, manufacturers have slowed production to better match their current order flow," according to Rob Ripperda, vice president of operations for the Texas Manufactured Housing Association. “The four-month stretch from November through February is typically the seasonal low for retail sales, but manufacturers are hoping orders start picking back up with the start of the March selling season."

The TMHS expected-sales index reflected this sentiment, inching positive for the first time since April. Moreover, respondents believe business activity, economic uncertainty, and the overall outlook will stabilize in the spring. This optimism may be in anticipation of looser financial conditions, but the risk of a U.S. recession by the end of 2023 remains a forceful headwind.

Funded by Texas real estate licensee fees, TRERC was created by the state legislature to meet the needs of many audiences, including the real estate industry, instructors, researchers, and the public. 

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Thousands of pages of data are available at the Center's website. News is available in our twice-weekly electronic newsletter RECON, our Real Estate Red Zone podcast, our daily NewsTalk Texas feed, on Facebook, on Twitter, on LinkedIn, and on Instagram. To request a free press subscription to our quarterly flagship periodical TG magazine, contact Bryan Pope at the e-mail address above.

 

Editor's note: As of Jan. 1, 2021, our official name is the Texas Real Estate Research Center.

Subscribe to Center news releases here.​

News Release 05-112205-1122
Two TRERC publications earn Silver Quill awardsTwo TRERC publications earn Silver Quill awards2022-10-31T05:00:00Z

COLLEGE STATION, Tex. (Texas Real Estate Research Center) – The quarterly magazine and annual report published by the Texas Real Estate Research Center (TRERC) at Texas A&M University have been awarded Silver Quill Awards by the International Association of Business Communicators (IABC) Southern Region.

TG magazine received an Award of Excellence. The publication also won “Best of Division,” receiving top scores in the Communications Skills division.

"From cover to cover, from issue to issue, TG is inviting to readers and gives them useful information,” said one of the judges. “Your magazine knows its audience and clearly delivers the information they need to do their job."

TRERC’s 2020-21 Annual Report + 2022 Calendar received an Award of Merit.

"The format is a very creative way to engage stakeholders and get them interested in the information," a judge said. "Putting the content into a format the audience can display year-round is a very resourceful way to promote your organization and stay in the forefront."

Earlier this year, the annual report received a Bronze Quill Award of Excellence from IABC Houston. 

The Silver Quill Awards recognize the best communications efforts entered from 13 U.S. states, Latin America, and the Caribbean.

Rather than being judged against one another, entries are evaluated on their own merits using IABC’s Global Seven-Point Scale of Excellence. Awards were announced at the connect2comms Conference in Greenville, S.C.

TG is a quarterly magazine covering TRERC research findings. It is distributed to more than 212,000 Texas real estate professionals. Recent issues of TG can be read online.

The annual report is popular because it includes a calendar featuring Texas scenery. See the winning publication here.

Since 1978, TRERC has received some 250 communications awards.

Funded primarily by Texas real estate licensee fees, the Texas Real Estate Research Center was created by the state legislature to meet the needs of many audiences, including the real estate industry, instructors, researchers, and the public. ​

https://mailchi.mp/mays/two-trerc-publications-earn-silver-quill-awards?e=[UNIQID]04-1022
Texas rural land-buying frenzy wanesTexas rural land-buying frenzy wanes2022-10-12T05:00:00Z


COLLEGE STATION, Tex. (Texas Real Estate Research Center) – Rural land sales volume fell 26.5 percent from mid-2021 to mid-2022, according to the just released Texas Land Market Latest Developments by the Texas Real Estate Research Center (TRERC) at Texas A&M University.

“Clearly activity appears to be slowing," said TRERC Research Economist Dr. Charles Gilliland. “Demand for land, as reported by rural brokers, remains strong but has noticeably cooled from last year's frenzied contest."

Gilliland said below-asking-price offers have returned to some markets, something not seen since third quarter 2020. Fewer properties for sale in second quarter 2022, however, increased prices by 24.5 percent to $4,286 per acre statewide.

Total second-quarter dollar sales volume hit $3.6 billion, up 28 percent. That compares with a 76.7 percent first-quarter rise, and a 97.6 percent increase in fourth quarter 2021.

“A total of 850,469 acres changed hands," said Gilliland, “up only 3.67 percent over 2021, suggesting market activity has fallen to a more normal level at high prices. The typical transaction expanded 9.4 percent to 1,293 acres."

Prices increased by more than 21 percent statewide, except in Far West Texas, where they fell substantially, says the report. However, total acres transferred declined in several regions, and total sales dropped everywhere but Far West Texas.

“This trend toward rising prices and declining activity suggests demand is dropping," said Gilliland. “If so, brokers may begin to find ebbing enthusiasm among potential buyers."

Read the complete report here.

Funded primarily by Texas real estate license fees, TRERC was created by the state legislature to meet the needs of many audiences, including the real estate industry, instructors, researchers, and the public.

land report graphs.jpg

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Thousands of pages of data are available at the Center's website. News is also available in our twice-weekly electronic newsletter RECON, our Real Estate Red Zone podcast, our daily NewsTalk Texas feed, on Facebook, on Twitter, on LinkedIn, and on Instagram. To request a free press subscription to our quarterly flagship periodical TG magazine, contact David Jones at the e-mail address above.

Editor's note: As of Jan. 1, 2021, our official name is the Texas Real Estate Research Center.

Subscribe to Center news releases here.​

https://mailchi.mp/mays/reporttexas-rural-land-buying-frenzy-wanes03-1022