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COLLEGE STATION, Tex. (Texas Real Estate Research Center) – It’s the largest roundup of landowners, brokers, appraisers, and others with Texas rural land interests. Some 500 are expected to attend the 32nd Annual Outlook for Texas Land Markets set for April 13-14 in San Antonio.

COLLEGE STATION, Tex. (Texas Real Estate Research Center) – Business activity increased across Texas’ residential mortgage market for the second straight month in February, according to the latest Texas Residential Mortgage Survey (TRMS).

Despite interest rates bouncing up after a fourth-quarter decline, the volume and average value of 30-year fixed-rate mortgages accelerated and are expected to elevate over the next six months.

The uptick in activity, however, coincided with lower revenue earned from closing costs and margins. The industry responded through ongoing payroll contractions and fewer hours worked.

“The Texas Mortgage Bankers Association (TMBA) remains optimistic as business activity has made small increases in the past month,” said TMBA President Steve Remington. “Revenue for mortgage bankers remains thin due to a highly competitive market, and the general consensus of mortgage executives is that purchase volumes will continue to rise in the coming months.”

Purchase applications typically track upward heading out of January and into the spring buying season.

“It appears that the drop in home-purchase originations might, at the least, be starting to level out as home prices fall with some additional assistance from lower closing costs,” said Dr. Adam Perdue, research economist at the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University (TRERC). “The potential impact of seasonal factors and delayed purchases from last year should also be taken into account.”

TRMS respondents expect industry employment to stabilize over the next quarter amid more purchase originations. They were less optimistic, however, about the market’s refinance segment.

Increased regulation and potential instability in financial markets and other macroeconomic factors present additional challenges as the industry attempts to build on recent momentum.

The monthly survey is a collaborative effort between the Texas Mortgage Bankers Association and TRERC to provide contemporaneous analysis of changes and conditions in the residential mortgage industry.

Funded by Texas real estate licensee fees, TRERC was created by the state legislature to meet the needs of many audiences, including the real estate industry, instructors, researchers, and the public.​

​COLLEGE STATION, Tex. (Texas Real Estate Research Center) – Despite upticks in interest rates and ongoing macroeconomic concerns, general business activity increased in Texas’ manufactured housing industry for the first time since April 2022, according to the latest Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS).

Supply chains continued to smooth, and the costs of raw materials fell for the ninth consecutive month amid moderating inflation.

“In the first two months of 2023, Texas’ manufactured housing plants pulled back production to the lowest level in the past ten years,” said Rob Ripperda, vice president of the Texas Manufactured Housing Association, “but retailer sales to consumers are running near the same elevated levels as they were in 2021.”

TMHS respondents mentioned saturated inventory for retailers back in December, but those levels appear to be normalizing as all but one manufacturer in the February survey expected sales to increase in the short run.

“March marks the beginning of the spring selling season, so sales should be picking up across the state, and retailers are going to need more inventory,” said Ripperda.

Manufacturers plan to expand payrolls and workweeks after cutting back last summer. They also anticipate an increase in available workers, which will temper labor costs moving forward.

On the other hand, the industry is slowing plans for capital expenditures, possibly in response to a potential increase in the cost of capital. On the demand side, borrowing costs affect the manufactured housing industry through multiple channels.

“The Federal Reserve is signaling further rate hikes that could translate into higher mortgage rates,” said Dr. Harold Hunt, senior research economist at the Texas Real Estate Research Center. “Even so, this could still result in better manufactured housing sales as consumers find it harder to qualify for traditional site-built homes.”

​Funded by Texas real estate licensee fees, TRERC was created by the state legislature to meet the needs of many audiences, including the real estate industry, instructors, researchers, and the public. ​

COLLEGE STATION, Tex. (Texas Real Estate Research Center) – Initial signs of stabilization appeared in Texas’ residential mortgage market, according to the Texas Residential Mortgage Survey (TRMS). 

Industry conditions worsened through much of last year as the Federal Reserve increased interest rates to tame inflation and normalize post-pandemic demand across the economy. The January TRMS, however, indicated an uptick in residential mortgage activity relative to December, and operations are expected to accelerate in the first two quarters of 2023.

"This may be a first sign that falling prices have started pulling potential buyers back to the housing market," according to Adam Perdue, Texas Real Estate Research Center (TRERC) research economist. “Housing affordability, however, remains hindered by higher interest rates and prices relative to those seen during the COVID-19 pandemic.”

The TRMS index for average value of home-purchase originations lifted into positive territory, indicating expectations of higher home prices after seven straight months of correction. The volume of originations is also expected to rebound over the next six months.

“We are optimistic for the start of the 2023 home-buying season,” said Steve Remington, president of the Texas Mortgage Bankers Association. “The feedback from many of our members echoes the data shown in the survey, with a recent uptick in borrower applications and pre-qualifications after a sharp decrease in the second half of last year.”

The TRMS tracks expectations for the number of pre-approved customers in the housing market over the next six months, and respondents expressed increased confidence in upcoming search activity.

“As interest rates continue to moderate and home values stabilize, we expect the Texas home market to perform well overall,” said Remington.

While January marked a positive month for the Texas economy, there are still macroeconomic headwinds that merit close monitoring of residential mortgage activity and the housing market more broadly.

The monthly survey is the result of a collaborative effort between the Texas Mortgage Bankers Association and the TRERC to provide contemporaneous analysis of changes and conditions in the residential mortgage industry. 

Funded by Texas real estate licensee fees, the Texas Real Estate Research Center was created by the state legislature to meet the needs of many audiences, including the real estate industry, instructors, researchers, and the public. 

​COLLEGE STATION – Manufactured housing sales have slumped for 15 consecutive months, according to the Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS), but the latest data indicate improvements on the horizon. 

"Supply-chain disruptions and surging demand in 2021 and early 2022 forced housing manufacturers to turn customers away due to capacity constraints," said Wesley Miller, senior research associate at the Texas Real Estate Research Center (TRERC). "The tables turned in April of last year when demand dropped in response to higher interest rates. Manufacturers slowed production and subsequently shrank payrolls."

While sales and production remained subdued in January, expectations elevated for the third straight month, and the TMHS business-activity index swung 60 points upward—its largest monthly movement in either direction since the survey started in June 2020. 

"The supply chain has been steadily improving over the last six months," according to TRERC Research Economist Dr. Harold Hunt. "Freight and fuel costs have dropped, although we are seeing fuel prices rebound slightly as of late."

The TMHS corroborated these developments through consistent decreases in the supply-chain disruptions and raw-materials price indexes. 

"Mortgage interest rates have also come down from their highs, and the combination of these factors are contributing to the recent optimism," said Hunt. 

Despite improved sentiments regarding macroeconomic factors, housing manufacturers are increasingly concerned about regulatory costs and the impact on their operations. 

"The Department of Energy’s (DOE) efficiency standards for manufactured homes are scheduled to go into effect May 31 of this year," said Rob Ripperda, vice president of the Texas Manufactured Housing Association. "The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), however, administers the manufactured-housing program and opted not to recommend the wholesale adoption of the DOE standards into the HUD code."

Ripperda said the Manufactured Housing Consensus Committee (MHCC) instead proposed energy efficiency updates that more appropriately considered the cost impacts of the changes and preserved the program’s statutory obligation to affordability. He said that with MHCC submitting recommendations, HUD is expected to draft and publish proposed rules that will process through the formal comment and finalization periods.  

"There is little chance that all those steps occur before the May 31st implementation deadline," Ripperda said, "and members of Congress are calling for DOE to delay implementation and to work directly with HUD to ensure the standards between the two agencies are not contradictory."