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Texas manufactured home sales recover after two-month slumpTexas manufactured home sales recover after two-month slump2024-02-14T06:00:00Z

COLLEGE STATION, Tex. (Texas Real Estate Research Center) – Housing manufacturers in Texas reported a surge of sales, according to the January T​exas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS). The increase comes after a two-month slump in new orders.

“Manufacturers are showing a lot of optimism with orders, backlogs, and hiring expectations over the next six months all hitting series highs in the TMHS,” said Rob Ripperda, vice president of operations for the Texas Manufactured Housing Association. “Production pulled back sharply in the back half of 2022 and through the first quarter of 2023, but since then run rates have increased for ten straight months. Plant managers feel the trend should continue as the spring selling season begins.”

Higher run rates coincided with a ten-month payroll expansion as reflected in the TMHS, and manufacturers anticipate another increase in hiring this year.

The TMHS labor-cost-expectations index hovered around a two-year high amid preparations for increased demand. Additional supply-side challenges suggest higher costs that could spill over into the price of finished homes.

“As the overall labor market is stabilizing from the post-pandemic boom, housing manufacturers are finding a larger pool of potential workers,” said Wes Miller, senior research associate at the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University (TRERC).

“Manufacturers are expanding operations without straining the number of hours worked per employee. Wages and salaries have also been relatively stable across the industry for about a year, but there appears to be upward pressure on the horizon.”

The price of raw materials for manufactured housing started inching up in November after a series of idiosyncratic supply shocks.

“Residential material costs are signaling a reversal in their downward trend,” according to TRERC Research Economist Harold Hunt, Ph.D. “After showing an annual decline of almost four percent in June, the St. Louis Federal Reserve’s Producer Price Index for residential construction inputs has turned positive.”

Hunt said bottlenecks could worsen amid constraints in the Panama Canal and the Red Sea, but there are market indications that manufacturers’ supply-chain concerns remain subdued relative to the pandemic era.

“While transportation costs are increasing, the Logistics Managers’ Index indicates an expanding logistics industry with higher warehouse and transportation use and capacity,” said Hunt.

TMHS respondents indicated heightened confidence and less uncertainty in the six-month outlook with industry activity poised to accelerate.

ABOUT THE SURVEY

This sentiment survey gauges current conditions and expectations surrounding Texas' manufactured housing industry. All members of the Texas Manufactured Housing Association (TMHA) with manufacturing facilities in the state are invited to participate, and the survey panel represents 89 percent of HUD-code homes produced in Texas. The survey, created as a joint project conducted for the manufactured housing industry by TMHA and TRERC, is updated monthly.​​

https://mailchi.mp/3ccbd67e8e70/news-release12-0224
Texas annual land conference offers ‘can’t-miss’ showcase of industry insiders with an opportunity to earn CE creditsTexas annual land conference offers ‘can’t-miss’ showcase of industry insiders with an opportunity to earn CE credits2024-02-13T06:00:00Z

​​​​​​COLLEGE STATION, Tex. (Texas Real Estate Research Center) – Over the past three decades, the Texas Real Estate Research Center’s (TRERC) Outlook for Texas Land Markets conference has earned a reputation as the can’t-miss conference for anyone involved with Texas rural land. Over time, attendees have begun to realize the conference also offers an opportunity to rack up continuing education (CE) credits, which Texas license holders are required to earn each year to retain their credentials.

"No other land conference in Texas has such a wide range of topics while also offering CE credits," said Pamela Canon, TRERC’s executive director. "It has enormous benefit for anyone who values, transacts, or promotes rural land, whether you're a landowner, a broker, an appraiser, or an attorney. Attendees have called this one of their favorites for networking and making new connections. It’s exciting and a lot of fun."

Canon said the credibility of the speakers scheduled to appear and the selected topics have been popular.

“The Center’s land conference offers an impressive lineup of industry experts covering a broad range of areas impacting Texas rural land markets,” she said. “You’ll hear the latest about water rights, the future of energy, legal issues, valuation trends, wildlife management, ag policies, ag crime, and private property rights all in one place.”

In addition, TRERC Research Director Daniel Oney, Ph.D., will present his economic outlook for the state, and TRERC research economists Charles Gilliland, Ph.D., and Lynn Krebs, Ph.D., will give their outlook for Texas land markets.

“Attendees can earn as many as 12 CE credits, depending on the agency and professional group issuing them,” said TRERC Program Coordinator Cheryl Pruitt, who organizes the two-day conference. “Our list of organizations issuing CE credits is extensive.”

That list includes the American Society of Appraisers, the American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, the Institute for Professionals in Taxation, Property Tax Consultants, Property Tax Professionals, the Texas Appraiser Licensing & Certification Board, Texas Real Estate Commission, Society of American Foresters (Texas Chapter), and CPA.

Pruitt said more than 100 CE credit hours were offered through those organizations at last year’s conference. More than 430 attendees received credits, and more than 75 of those received multiple credits.

Early registration for the conference is $350 by March 7, increasing after that, and $425 at the door. A special four-hour legal update from the Texas Real Estate Commission is available Friday after the conference concludes for an additional $50.

For more information and a link to register, visit TRERC’s website.

 
ABOUT THE CONFERENCE

WHEN
Thursday, April 4, 2024 - Friday, April 5, 2024
8:00 a.m. to 3:45 p.m. Central

WHERE
Hyatt Regency San Antonio Riverwalk
123 Losoya St.
San Antonio, TX 78205
210-222-1234

REGISTRATION COST
Conference only: $350 by March 7, $375 after March 7, $425 at the door.
Conference + Legal Update I: $400 by March 7, $425 after March 7, $475 at the door.

Online registration closes March 31 at 11 p.m.​​​​

https://mailchi.mp/9b7958b33c4a/news-release11-0224
Texas housing manufacturers bullish heading into 2024Texas housing manufacturers bullish heading into 20242024-01-17T06:00:00Z

COLLEGE STATION, Tex. (Texas Real Estate Research Center) – Texas manufactured housing activity ended the year on a positive note with nine consecutive months of production increases, according to the December Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS). Backlogs decreased for the second straight month, and the industry is well positioned for a springtime surge in activity.

“The fourth quarter marked the first time that Texas’ aggregate inventory appears to have risen since the end of 2022, indicating that the seasonal pattern of inventory buildup by retailers from the fall through February could be normalizing,” said Rob Ripperda, vice president of operations for the Texas Manufactured Housing Association. “Nobody would call 2023 a good year for manufactured home production when looking at total shipments, but manufacturers weathered the storm brought on by interest-rate hikes and are entering 2024 with backlogs of around six to seven weeks.”

Although the TMHS new-orders index fell for the second straight month, the six-month sales expectations measure reached a record high heading into 2024.

“Retail sales have reliably jumped higher in March for the past decade, and a rise in production has coincided with that seasonal increase in demand,” said Ripperda.

In addition to stimulating sales volume, lower interest rates will result in upward price pressure.

“Prices received for finished homes have declined rather steadily over the past 18 months,” according to Wes Miller, senior research associate at the Texas Real Estate Research Center (TRERC). “Lower rates will loosen budget constraints and spur demand for housing. On the supply side, housing manufacturers are confident that the cost of raw materials and labor will increase during the first half of 2024, applying additional upward pressure on prices.”

The health of supply chains could play an important role in determining production and prices.

“Last month, supply chain costs were low and relatively stable, and the primary concern was drought-related constraints at the Panama Canal,” according to Harold Hunt, Ph.D., TRERC research economist. “In the last 30 days, however, attacks on shipping in the Red Sea have sent spot container rates soaring. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), a key spot rate indicator for the shipping industry, rose 40 percent in the last week alone.”

Manufactured-housing supply chains have exhibited signs of volatility over the past eight months after recovering from COVID-19-related disruptions, but TMHS respondents expect disruptions to dissipate despite geopolitical strife.

“Although costs are currently climbing, total imports to Houston rose almost 30 percent in December from the November level based on data from logistics provider Descartes,” said Hunt.

Geopolitical headwinds and domestic election-year concerns weighed on the TMHS uncertainty index but failed to curb respondents’ optimistic outlook for the first half of 2024.​​​​​​​

https://mailchi.mp/89c782a61561/news-release10-0124
Texas Real Estate Research Center releases 2024 housing, commercial, land market projections Texas Real Estate Research Center releases 2024 housing, commercial, land market projections 2024-01-04T06:00:00Z

2024 Texas Real Estate Forecast unveils innovative format, illuminating trends f​​or dynamic real estate economy

COLLEGE STATION, Tex. (Texas Real Estate Research Center) – Economists​​​​​ at the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M (TRERC) released their 2024 outlook for real estate in the housing, commercial, and land s​​ectors of the Texas economy. The comprehensive analysis of market behaviors draws attention to the most influential, big picture trends that impact real estate asset markets in Texas.

“Given the powerful economic influence of the state’s real estate assets, we focused our new forecast on real estate decision makers who shape our economy and impact more than 30 million Texans,” said TRERC Research Director Daniel Oney, Ph.D. “Texas is a real estate trendsetter in the U.S. when it comes to residential, commercial, and land markets, so we thoughtfully analyzed more data than usual this year to help us determine if the state’s statistics from the previous year could be sustainable in 2024.”

According to Pamela Canon, TRERC Executive Director, the reformatted forecast delivers invaluable insights into the residential, commercial, and land markets of Texas, providing an economic roadmap for navigating the state’s vibrant real estate landscape. 

“Our consensus at the Center was to deliver a new and improved economic outlook for the real estate stakeholders in every asset market in 2024,” Canon said. “We wanted to connect the dots between data and risks for better real estate intelligence by offering relevant and reliable information to guide decision makers across the state.”

Texas has consistently set the pace for real estate trends, with DFW, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio dominating the U.S. market in 2023. As the state's influence continues to shape the nation, the 2024 Texas Real Estate Forecast delves into the sustainability of this trend. 

Notable TRERC projections for 2024:  

Residential Market  

  • Single-family housing deliveries will increase with construction matching pre-COVID levels. 
  • Average single-family home prices expected to remain flat or dip slightly, staying near $340,000.  
  • Multifamily effective rent growth to strengthen, averaging 2.5 percent for the year.  

Commercial Market

  • New office space deliveries to surpass 2023 levels, while net absorption turns negative.  
  • Retail rents expected to end 2024 slightly above December 2023 levels, with up to 2 percent growth statewide.  

Industrial Market

  • Industrial deliveries remain strong, with a potential 1.5 to 3 percent increase in statewide inventory.  
  • Statewide industrial rents to continue increasing but at a slower pace than in 2023.  

Land Market

Rural land sales volumes to decline in 2024, with median land prices reaching a near-term peak and then declining.  

Legal Outlook

Legislative changes could quickly impact zoning, property taxes, plat approval, and regulations, significantly influencing real estate markets across Texas. 

"The 2024 Texas Real Estate Forecast is not just a prediction,” Oney emphasized. “It's a thoughtful, consensus-based economic tool for empowerment. It equips real estate decision makers with the knowledge needed to navigate the complexities of the Texas real estate market." 

Key features of the 2024 Texas Real Estate Forecast:  

Informed Decision-Making: The forecast aims to empower real estate decision-makers, including financiers, developers, builders, homebuyers, sellers, business occupiers, and transaction facilitators, with comprehensive and actionable information. 

Asset-Specific Projections: Covering residential housing, commercial spaces, and rural land, the forecast provides detailed projections for each asset category, offering a holistic view of the real estate landscape.  

Macro Drivers and Risk Projections: By connecting macro drivers with risk projections, the forecast enables contingency planning across the state, emphasizing the principles of audience, assets, comparison, method, scenarios, evaluation, and vetting.  

Certainty Indicators: Through color-coded signals, the forecast indicates the level of certainty associated with each asset, helping stakeholders assess risks and make informed decisions. Green signifies low risk, yellow indicates intermediate risk, and red denotes significant risk.  

Key Macro Drivers: Identified market behaviors and macro drivers, including economic output, jobs, income, spending, population, interest rates, inflation, energy prices, and legal/geopolitical factors, form the foundation of TRERC's asset forecasts for 2024. 

The entire 2024 Texas Real Estate Forecast is online here for comprehensive content and insights, including data tables from major Texas Metropolitan Statistical Areas. For additional information and archived real estate reports, visit www.recenter.tamu.edu​. ​

https://mailchi.mp/e5c41d1109eb/news-release09-0124
Texas housing manufacturers preparing to ramp up activity in 2024Texas housing manufacturers preparing to ramp up activity in 20242023-12-13T06:00:00Z

COLLEGE STATION, Tex. (Texas Real Estate Research Center) – The state’s housing manufacturers expressed optimism heading into 2024, prompting a stretch of payroll expansions and capital expenditures, according to the November edition of the Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS).​​

“Housing manufacturers have increased hiring activity for eight consecutive months,” said Wes Miller, senior research associate at the Texas Real Estate Research Center (TRERC) at Texas A&M University. “Payroll expansions accelerated in November, probably as plant managers attempt to onboard and train new employees before the spring selling season. There’s also been an uptick in labor supply that has moderated wage growth across the industry.”

Additional manpower is necessary for production to keep pace with steady sales activity.

“Manufacturers have been slowly building up their output of homes, starting from 2014 production levels in January to now running in line with where they were before the COVID-19 pandemic,” said Rob Ripperda, vice president of operations for the Texas Manufactured Housing Association. “The TMHS indicates that new orders were a little softer in November, but a majority of respondents are expecting increases over the next six months, and retailer inventories are dramatically lower than they were one year ago.”

However, idiosyncratic supply disruptions may limit capacity usage as demand strengthens.

“Housing manufacturers’ supply chain volatility is a bit of a puzzle,” said TRERC Research Economist Harold Hunt, Ph.D. “This is the second survey increase in disruptions in the past three months. Diesel fuel prices have dropped 29 percent from their June 2022 peak. Container shipping rates have decreased even more dramatically from their September 2021 high.”

While the TMHS supply chai​​​n disruptions index has fluctuated widely since September, manufacturers reiterated their expectations of stability heading into 2024.

“The major barrier to goods shipments has been a 40 to 50 percent reduction in ships passing through the Panama Canal,” said Hunt. “It is unknown, however, how much this bottleneck is affecting manufactured housing production.”

—30—

ABOUT THE SURVEY

This monthly sentiment survey gauges current conditions and expectations surrounding Texas' manufactured housing industry. All members of the Texas Manufactured Housing Association with manufacturing facilities in the state are invited to participate, and the survey panel represents 89 percent of HUD-code homes produced in Texas. The survey was created by the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University, who administers it and calculates the responses.​​​​​

https://mailchi.mp/83b98d3df669/news-release08-1223