{{titleBar.title}}

{{titleBar.tagline}}

 

 

Supply-side factors weigh on Texas’ manufactured housing industry optimismSupply-side factors weigh on Texas’ manufactured housing industry optimism2021-04-09T05:00:00Z

​​​​​​

COLLEGE STATION, Tex. (Texas Real Estate Research Center) – Prices paid for raw materials soared for the fourth consecutive month, according to the latest Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS), with a spike in supply-chain disruptions and increased regulatory burden.

 

Rob Ripperda, vice president of operations for the Texas Manufactured Housing Association (TMHA), noted, “The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) announced building-code changes in January that were scheduled to go into effect on March 15, forcing manufacturers to gear up for making a switch while also dealing with supplier shortages and lengthy backlogs. Fortunately, HUD has extended the effective date of implementation to July 21, giving manufacturers time to recover from the impacts of both the pandemic and Winter Storm Uri."

While manufacturers do not expect additional regulation in the next six months, there are no signs of reduced pricing pressure. Moreover, manufacturers observed slower growth in the labor supply as well as higher labor costs.

Survey data indicate a sluggish start to the spring season, with the volume of new orders and sales flattening. Backlogs remained elevated but showed initial signs of improving through summer.

“We still aren't seeing much reduction in supply-chain bottlenecks," said Dr. Harold Hunt, research economist at the Texas Real Estate Research Center (TRERC) at Texas A&M University. “This is becoming a significant drag on the manufacturing process from end to end. If companies can't make informed decisions about product deliveries to and from their factories, we may see more business uncertainty in the months ahead."

This sentiment was reflected in the March TMHS as the uncertainty index worsened for the second straight month. While industry optimism has waned during the first quarter, the overall outlook remains positive across the industry.

TRERC and TMHA partner to produce a monthly survey of business conditions and expectations surrounding the manufactured housing industry. ​​

​​

https://mailchi.mp/mays/supply-side-factors-weigh-on-texas-manufactured-housing-industry-optimism22-0421
Supply of $200,000 Homes Disappearing Along Texas Border Where Home Sales Began Year with RecordSupply of $200,000 Homes Disappearing Along Texas Border Where Home Sales Began Year with Record2021-04-06T05:00:00Z


COLLEGE STATION, Tex. (Texas Real Estate Research Center) – If anyone has a reason to smile about the current state of the Texas border economy, it has to be anyone selling a home priced less than $200,000.

“The supply of active listings in that price range along the border fell to unprecedented lows in January," said Research Economist Dr. Luis Torres with the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University.

New listings for homes priced less than $200,000 increased slightly in Brownsville and McAllen, but total months of inventory fell to 2.4 and 3.0 months, respectively. At the same time, Laredo's supply decreased to 1.8 months.  El Paso's slid to 1.4 months.

“El Paso's inventory of homes priced less than $200,000 would be exhausted in around a month at the current sales pace without any new active listings," said Torres.

Economists for the Texas Real Estate Research Center consider a six month's inventory a “balanced market." Unprecedented demand means what few affordable homes are available and are selling faster.

“Homes in Brownsville are selling an average 80 days sooner this year than in 2020. In El Paso, they are selling 49 days quicker," said Torres.

After six straight monthly declines, McAllen days-on-market ticked up in January but remained at 68 days, down from 85 days a year earlier. The average home in Laredo sells after just 42 days.

January border home sales increased for the third consecutive month, accelerating 3 percent to start the year with record activity. El Paso sales for homes priced more than $200,000 accounted for much of the improvement and pulled the metro's overall metric up 3.8 percent.

McAllen posted similar sales growth, although most of the gain was due to elevated sales for homes priced less than $200,000. Still, sales for that price range comprised only 60 percent of the total share compared to 70 percent a year ago. Laredo sales decreased 6.4 percent with declines across the price spectrum. Brownsville sales contracted 2.5 percent after double-digit growth the previous month.

Sales of  higher-priced homes continue to increase as limited inventories at the lower end of the market drive up median prices. The median home price rose to record-highs of $197,400 and $191,600 in Brownsville and El Paso, respectively. The Laredo median rose to $195,600. In McAllen, where monthly sales fluctuations favored lower-priced homes, the median price fell $12,000 to $175,200 -- still 8.8 percent growth over last year..

For more on the border economy, read the Texas Real Estate Research Center's latest issue of the Texas Border Report.​

https://mailchi.mp/mays/news-release-7e48nkot3z21-0421
Urban Buyers Stampede to Rural TexasUrban Buyers Stampede to Rural Texas2021-03-30T05:00:00Z


COLLEGE STATION, Tex. (Texas Real Estate Research Center) – Spooked by pandemic fears and urban unrest, herds of Texas city-dwelling buyers descended on rural locations in latter 2020. When the dust settled, 552,707 acres had been purchased for a record $1.69 billion.

“Fourth quarter 2020 produced a remarkable increase in rural property transactions across most of Texas," said Dr. Charles Gilliland, research economist for the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University. “Statewide, the 7,684 sales were up 28.9 percent from last year."

The increased demand sent statewide land prices up 3.1 percent to $3,064 per acre. The typical sale was 1,139 acres.

“Taken together, the third and fourth quarter results signal an active and rising market with strong demand for land in most areas of Texas," said Gilliland, who has studied state land markets for 40 years. “Currently, market professionals report a flood of interest in land purchases."

“Austin-Waco-Hill Country rural markets exploded in the third and fourth quarters of 2020," said Gilliland. “The 1,103 sales marked the first time the region recorded more than 1,000 in a quarter. Sales in the region were up 85.1 percent from the same time in 2019."

Prices increased in all regions except for the Panhandle and South Plains. The West Texas and Austin-Waco-Hill Country Regions recorded small price increases. However, they did post large increases in the number of sales.

Only Far West Texas, hit by falling oil prices, reported a sales decline. Transaction size fell everywhere except for South Texas. Total dollar volume fell in Far West Texas, grew modestly in the Gulf Coast and Brazos Bottom Regions, but expanded everywhere else.

A new report from the Texas Real Estate Research Center breaks down Texas land markets region by region. Read Texas Land Market Latest Developments here. See regional tables that follow. The report also includes limited rural land data for Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi.

An article by Gilliland, “See Ya Later, Next-Door Neighbor," will be published in the forthcoming issue of TG magazine.

The Texas Real Estate Research Center is hosting a virtual “30th Annual Outlook for Texas Land Markets" conference April 21-23.


Texas Statewide
Price per acre$3,064
YOY change3.10%
Size (acres)1,139
YOY change-13.19%
Number of sales7,684
YOY change28.93%
Dollar volume$1,693,495,608
YOY change17.63%
Total acres sold552,707
Acres change14.10%

Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center

Panhandle–South Plains
Price per acre$1,091
YOY change-7.93%
Size (acres)381
YOY change-9.12%
Number of sales503
YOY change23.89%
Dollar volume$124,902,561
YOY change42.70%
Total acres sold114,484
Acres change55.00%

Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center

Far West Texas
Price per acre$930
YOY change16.40%
Size (acres)7,668
YOY change-15.48%
Number of sales26
YOY change-25.11%
Dollar volume$32,765,863
YOY change-56.95%
Total acres sold35,232
Acres change-63.01%

Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center

West Texas
Price per acre$1,657
YOY change0.36%
Size (acres)378
YOY change-4.50%
Number of sales892
YOY change40.69%
Dollar volume$202,065,404
YOY change62.20%
Total acres sold121,947
Acres change61.61%

Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center

Northeast Texas
Price per acre$5,036
YOY change3.99%
Size (acres)116
YOY change-3.21%
Number of sales2,329
YOY change22.51%
Dollar volume$408,607,533
YOY change32.61%
Total acres sold81,137
Acres change27.53%

Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center

Austin–Waco–Hill Country
Price per acre$4,164
YOY change0.95%
Size (acres)209
YOY change-1.93%
Number of sales2,364
YOY change38.98%
Dollar volume$473,798,467
YOY change26.06%
Total acres sold113,784
Acres change24.88%

Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center

 

Gulf Coast–Brazos Bottom
Price per acre$6,887
YOY change8.30%
Size (acres)147
YOY change-2.60%
Number of sales959
YOY change33.57%
Dollar volume$247,314,472
YOY change1.07%
Total acres sold35,910
Acres change-6.68%

Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center

 

South Texas
Price per acre$3,919
YOY change2.51%
Size (acres)297
YOY change5.44%
Number of sales611
YOY change8.14%
Dollar volume$196,781,695
YOY change10.38%
Total acres sold50,212
Acres change7.68%

Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center


Funded primarily by Texas real estate licensee fees, the Texas Real Estate Research Center was created by the state legislature to meet the needs of many audiences, including the real estate industry, instructors, researchers, and the public. The Center is part of Mays Business School at Texas A&M University.

—30—

Thousands of pages of data are available at the Center's website. News is also available in our twice-weekly electronic newsletter RECON, our Real Estate Red Zone podcast, our daily NewsTalk Texas feed, on Facebook, on Twitter, on LinkedIn, and on Instagram. To request a free press subscription to our quarterly flagship periodical TG magazine, contact David Jones at the e-mail address above.​​

https://mailchi.mp/mays/news-release-5fhyg0y69x20-0321
Texas existing-home sales drop 16 percent in February as inventory falls to less than 1.5 monthsTexas existing-home sales drop 16 percent in February as inventory falls to less than 1.5 months2021-03-23T05:00:00Z

​​

COLLEGE STATION, Tex. (Texas Real Estate Research Center) – Texas' housing market slowed in February after persistently low mortgage interest rates contributed to record sales in the existing-home sector the previous month.

“Sales activity was greatly hindered by February's unseasonably wintery weather that caused power outages and water disruptions across the state," said Dr. Luis Torres, research economist for the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University.

Existing-homes sold through the Texas Multiple Listing Services declined 16 percent from January, drawing even with year-ago levels. Despite slower sales, the state's existing-home inventory fell below 1.5 months in February. The number of new listings that hit the market declined for the second straight month to their lowest reading since April 2020, when the state was under a stay-at-home mandate.

“New listings rebounded during the summer amid strong housing demand, but they have trended down since fourth quarter 2020, contributing to the lack of homes for sale," Torres said. “Supply is expected to remain tight in 2021, affecting home sales."

Many analysts point to older homeowners holding onto their houses longer, resulting in a reduced supply of active listings available to the increasing number of millennials becoming first-time homebuyers.

According to the National Association of Realtors, first-time homebuyers accounted for 31 percent of February sales, which overall decreased 4.5 percent relative to January. Compared with year-ago levels, however, activity elevated 8.2 percent. The share of homes sold to first-time buyers was even higher in the new-home market. The February National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index survey indicated 43 percent of new single-family homes sold were to first-time buyers in the last 12 months. 

Foreclosure moratoriums are causing fewer homes to be put on the market than otherwise would be expected at the elevated levels of joblessness experienced in the past year.    

“During times of economic hardship, foreclosures typically increase, providing additional listings for sale," said Torres. “However, forbearance and the federal foreclosure moratorium have provided help to households during the pandemic. Continued stability in the housing market is essential to Texas' economic recovery."

The Federal Housing Finance Agency has extended the foreclosure and REO eviction moratoriums for properties owned by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac through June 30, 2021. Eligible borrowers were also granted an additional three-month extension of forbearance for a total of up to 18 months. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's federal eviction moratorium is set to expire at the end of March.   

Rising mortgage rates are another headwind to the Texas home market. The Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation's 30-year fixed-rate ticked up for the second straight month in February to 2.8 percent. Continued increases may soften housing demand. 

“The 30-year mortgage rate is closely linked to the ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yield, which looks to increase in the coming months as vaccination rates improve, and the third fiscal stimulus package supports economic recovery," Torres said.

In Texas, Gov. Greg Abbot lifted the mask mandate and increased capacity of all businesses and facilities in the state to 100 percent starting March 10.

“Prospects for Texas' full economic recovery continue to depend on dwindling COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations and progress on the vaccine front," Torres said, “but optimistic consumer behavior could boost business activity, reduce the number of layoffs going forward, and allow Texans to return to the labor force."

Read more about the Real Estate Research Center's predictions of economic activity of COVID-19.​​

https://mailchi.mp/mays/news-release-nsiydta3b419-03-21
Texas multifamily short-term outlook ‘worrisome,’ but high-growth cities poised to do wellTexas multifamily short-term outlook ‘worrisome,’ but high-growth cities poised to do well2021-03-17T05:00:00Z


COLLEGE STATION, Tex. (Texas Real Estate Research Center) – Despite a new round of fiscal stimulus checks, the approaching expiration of the national eviction moratorium on March 31 is “worrisome" to a senior economist for the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University.

“The short-term multifamily outlook is less than ideal," said Research Economist Dr. Luis Torres. “The coronavirus bill passed by Congress March 10 includes help for tenants who are behind on their rent and utility bills. Even with the assistance provided by the latest round of fiscal stimulus, many renters are jobless and depend on weekly unemployment benefits.

“The apartment market short-term outlook is worrisome due to the uncertainty surrounding the ending of the eviction moratorium, but it will be helped by the latest round of fiscal stimulus."

Torres said, while there will be short-term disruptions and pain for both tenants and landlords, the effects may be less dire for landlords and the multifamily housing construction sector in hot markets where people are moving in large numbers.

“The multifamily market is poised to do well in the medium- and long-terms because of constrained single-family supply and prices rapidly outpacing incomes, especially in high growth Texas markets like Austin and Dallas-Fort Worth.."

Details of the multifamily outlook for Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio are included in the latest Texas Quarterly Apartment Report from the Center. Here are the Metropolitan Statistical Area highlights.

​Austin

  • Overall vacancy rates continued trending up in the last quarter. However, rent growth in Class A and the overall markets declined.
  • Net absorption increased, denoting demand for multifamily space.
  • Overall rent payment percentages are 2.4 percent higher than the national average.

Dallas-Fort Worth

  • Class A apartment effective rent growth continued to decline.
  • Occupancy rates increased in both markets.
  • Overall market net absorption decreased slightly in the last quarter but remained relatively high.
  • Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington's rent payment percentage was only 0.3 lower than fourth quarter 2019.
  • Among Texas respondents not current on rent, 74 percent of DFW households see eviction as either very likely or somewhat likely in the next two months compared with 52 percent nationwide. That's another worrisome sign for both renters and landlords.

Houston

  • Both the overall and Class A actual vacancy rates increased last quarter.
  • In the overall market, units under construction, deliveries, and net absorption declined but not enough to signal any dramatic shift in new apartment supply.
  • The percentage of multifamily tenants paying rent in the last quarter declined by about 0.4 percent from the previous quarter.
  • Forty percent of respondents expressed concern for their ability to pay next month's rent compared with 37 percent nationally, a troubling sign for both renters and landlords.

San Antonio

  • Actual vacancy rate in overall and Class A apartment markets improved last quarter but remained higher than the natural rate.
  • Net absorption continued to trend up in both overall and Class A markets.
  • Effective Class A rent growth registered three consecutive quarters of negative annual growth as rents declined when compared with 2019.

Funded primarily by Texas real estate licensee fees, the Texas Real Estate Research Center was created by the state legislature to meet the needs of many audiences, including the real estate industry, instructors, researchers, and the public. The Center is part of Mays Business School at Texas A&M University.

—30—

Thousands of pages of data are available at the Center's website. News is also available in our twice-weekly electronic newsletter RECON, our Real Estate Red Zone podcast, our daily NewsTalk Texas feed, on Facebook, on Twitter, on LinkedIn, and on Instagram. To request a free press subscription to our quarterly flagship periodical TG magazine, contact David Jones at the e-mail address above.

https://mailchi.mp/mays/news-release-wsfc8pxxji18-0321