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COLLEGE STATION, Tex. (Texas Real Estate Research Center) – More than one of every ten people moving to Texas during the 2020 pandemic year was from California, said an economist with the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University.

“The movement of Californians to Texas is not new," said Research Economist Dr. Luis Torres. “In 19 of the last 20 years, California ranked as the top move-to-Texas state. The only exception was Louisiana in 2005 as a result of Hurricane Katrina. The share of Californians relocating to Texas has increased every year since 2011."

Florida was the second largest source of new Texans with a 7.2 percent share, less than half the California influx. Rounding out the top five sources were Colorado, Illinois, and Louisiana. International movers were not included in this study.

At the county level,  the majority of newcomers were from Los Angeles (CA) County,  or 3.1 percent of the total migration.

“This  is not surprising since Los Angeles County is the most populated in California," said Torres. “Four other Southern Californian counties—San Diego, Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino—made up the top ten counties with residents moving to Texas.

“Contrary to popular belief, the majority of people moving from California are coming from the southern part of the state and not from Silicon Valley, which is farther north," said Torres. Other U.S. counties in the top ten sources of new Texans were Maricopa (AZ), Cook (IL), Clark (NV), El Paso (CO), and King (WA).

To read the research article, go to “Where Did New Texans Come from During the Pandemic?"

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Thousands of pages of data are available at the Center's website. News is available in our twice-weekly electronic newsletter RECON, our Real Estate Red Zone podcast, our daily NewsTalk Texas feed, on Facebook, on Twitter, on LinkedIn, and on Instagram. To request a free press subscription to our quarterly flagship periodical TG magazine, contact David Jones at d-jones@tamu.edu.

Subscribe to Center news releases here.

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COLLEGE STATION, Tex. (Texas Real Estate Research Center) – The supply of skilled labor is shrinking relative to demand across domestic manufacturing sectors, leading to labor shortages and upward wage pressure. The latest Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) revealed a continuation of these trends with little relief in sight.

The labor-supply index fell to its lowest level in series history (beginning in June 2020), extending a five-​​month decline after rebounding last winter.

“The manufactured housing industry's woes are right in line with state and national surveys," according to Dr. Harold Hunt, research economist with the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University. “The Associated General Contractors of America found that 89 percent of firms had difficulty hiring hourly skilled positions, and half of owners in the National Federal of Independent Business' survey reported job openings that they could not fill during the period."

In the manufactured housing industry, companies scrambled to increase payrolls in an attempt to ramp up production. Manufacturers also increased capital expenditures to streamline operations and improve efficiency.

In addition to labor-market challenges, supply-chain disruptions worsened after hopes of improvement during the summer. Despite bottlenecks for inputs, the raw-materials price index fell for the second straight month and is trending downward to close the year. Relief extended downstream to retailers with the finished-homes price index falling negative for the first time in over a year.

“The fact that labor-cost increases and supply-chain issues persist for manufacturers, but prices for finished homes are falling and expected to keep declining, really highlights how acute the surge in materials costs were over the past year," said Rob Ripperda, vice president of operations for the Texas Manufactured Housing Association. “Manufactured-home prices have moved up 20 to 30 percent since summer 2020, but that increase occurred while material costs like lumber had more than doubled. Price declines will be good for demand and affordability, but uncertainty in supply chains remains a risk."

The TMHS uncertainty index remained constant relative to August but showed signs of worsening during the fourth quarter. Despite this challenge, Texas' manufactured housing industry maintained a solid outlook with increased levels of business activity over the next six months.

Funded primarily by Texas real estate licensee fees, the Texas Real Estate Research Center was created by the state legislature to meet the needs of many audiences, including the real estate industry, instructors, researchers, and the public. The Center is part of Mays Business School at Texas A&M University.

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COLLEGE STATION, Tex. (Texas Real Estate Research Center) – Supply-chain disruptions fueled inflationary pressures over the past year, but improvements are underway, according to the latest Texas Manufactured Housing Survey. The supply-chain disruption index fell to its lowest level since the survey launched in June 2020, and manufacturers anticipate additional relief through year end.

“Companies across several industries have been slowly increasing their materials inventory during the past months whenever possible," said Dr. Harold Hunt, research economist with the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University. “In the case of lumber, which is a major input in manufactured housing, waning consumer purchases at the retail level have reduced demand pressure after surging during the pandemic. The price of lumber is currently less than a third of what it was in May."

Lower input costs allowed manufacturers to relax the price of finished homes for the first time this year.

Severe worker shortages, however, pushed up labor costs and hindered industry activity.

“Earlier in the year, a full one-third of folks cited fears of contracting COVID-19 as a reason for not returning to work," said Hunt. “As vaccination rates have increased, this fear has declined. Hopefully, this trend will continue, and workers will reenter the labor force. However, the Delta variant could still be a wildcard."

Manufactured housing production flattened in August as plants may be operating near capacity, but backlogs are still declining as sales inched downward.

“Manufacturers have continued to find ways to expand production despite serious headwinds from supply-chains and the availability of labor to get those backlogs closer to normal," said Rob Ripperda, vice president of operations for the Texas Manufactured Housing Association. “A couple of new plants are scheduled to come online in the next six months that will further help supply catch up with demand."

Industry optimism was relatively widespread, and manufacturers ramped up capital expenditures in an effort to adjust to persistent, yet moderating, supply constraints as well as to satisfy projected growth.

Funded primarily by Texas real estate licensee fees, the Texas Real Estate Research Center was created by the state legislature to meet the needs of many audiences, including the real estate industry, instructors, researchers, and the public. The Center is part of Mays Business School at Texas A&M University.

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Thousands of pages of data are available at the Center's website. News is also available in our twice-weekly electronic newsletter RECON, our Real Estate Red Zone podcast, our daily NewsTalk Texas feed, on Facebook, on Twitter, on LinkedIn, and on Instagram. ​

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Researchers at the Texas Real Estate Research Center see a more stable Texas housing market ahead, as soon as pandemic-induced home shortages dissipate. 

The Center's 2021 Mid-Year Texas Housing & Economic Outlook was released today. Here are the takeaways.

Supply chain bottlenecks continue
 
The strong recovery has created supply chain bottlenecks that put upward pressure on prices and raise inflation concerns. Researchers hope the inflation pressures are transitory, but there is some uncertainty surrounding their assessment.
 
Mortgage rates go higher
 
Mortgage rates are expected to rise slightly by the end of 2021.

• The period of historically low mortgage rates that existed during the pandemic will probably be over in 2022. 
• Mortgage rates could be somewhat higher in 2022 compared to 2021 as a result of changes in the Federal Reserve's policy and inflation pressures.

 
Housing demand continues strong
 
The housing market will continue to be characterized by strong demand with low inventories, accompanied by strong price growth for the remainder of 2021.
 
Home inventory improves
 
The inventory of homes available for sale should improve in the coming months as listings seem to have reached a trough and are rising. This will ease some of the price pressures.
 
Even with homebuilders facing supply shortages of lumber, labor, appliances, and other construction materials, which have driven up prices and costs, new home construction should register strong positive growth in 2021.
 
Home construction growth slows in 2022
 
In 2022, new home construction is projected to grow but at a slower rate than the previous two years as the housing market stabilizes. The housing market will move toward a more sustainable long-run path as the pandemic housing market frenzy dissipates.
 
Demographics fuel Texas housing demand
 
Economic growth and demographic trends, such as aging millennials and migration from out of state, will help drive Texas housing demand for the remainder of 2021 and 2022. 
 
A more balanced market in 2022
 
For 2022, researchers expect the supply of home for sale to increase and housing demand to remain relatively strong. This will move the housing market back into balance and cause home price growth to slow. 
 
Foreclosures absorbed

Once forbearance ends in the fall of 2021, even with an increase in delinquencies and foreclosures, the housing market could absorb the foreclosed homes. Researchers say it's possible homes could be sold with a gain even before they enter foreclosure.

Funded primarily by Texas real estate licensee fees, the Texas Real Estate Research Center was created by the state legislature to meet the needs of many audiences, including the real estate industry, instructors, researchers, and the public. The Center is part of Mays Business School at Texas A&M University.

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Thousands of pages of data are available at the Center's website. News is also available in our twice-weekly electronic newsletter RECON, our Real Estate Red Zone podcast, our daily NewsTalk Texas feed, on Facebook, on Twitter, on LinkedIn, and on Instagram. To request a free press subscription to our quarterly flagship periodical TG magazine, contact David Jones at the e-mail address above.​

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COLLEGE STATION, Tex. (Texas Real Estate Research Center) – The latest Texas Manufactured Housing Survey reveals an uptick in industry optimism regarding the second half of 2021. Manufacturers are investing in capital expenditures and expanding payrolls in hopes of boosting production, but supply-chain disruptions remain a hindrance.

According to Dr. Harold Hunt, research economist with the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University, “Although supply-chain bottlenecks continue, port and railroad executives predict significant improvement in material flows six to nine months from now."

Prices paid for raw materials decelerated for the second consecutive month, and survey respondents anticipate price declines as the supply chain smooths. Inflationary pressure also decreased on the retail front after prices for finished homes mirrored material-cost fluctuations.

Manufactured-housing sales decreased for the third straight month, but production continued at a rapid clip amid backlog buildup over the past year.

“Strong retail-sales data suggest declining sales from manufacturers has more to do with the market normalizing from the pandemic production squeeze than from some larger slowdown in demand," said Rob Ripperda, vice president of operations for the Texas Manufactured Housing Association. Texas manufacturers had been receiving orders from states much farther than normal. As producers in other states catch up, spec orders and demand from out-of-region buyers have probably cooled too."

Regulatory changes presented another challenge to Texas' manufactured housing industry, but uncertainty decreased overall, and activity is expected to accelerate to close the year.

Funded primarily by Texas real estate licensee fees, the Texas Real Estate Research Center was created by the state legislature to meet the needs of many audiences, including the real estate industry, instructors, researchers, and the public. The Center is part of Mays Business School at Texas A&M University.​

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