Greater Houston Partnership: 2016 Employment ForecastGreater Houston Partnership: 2016 Employment Forecasthttps://www.recenter.tamu.edu/news/newstalk-texas/?Item=114462015-12-15T06:00:00Z2015-12-15T20:00:00Z

​​​HOUSTON - The Greater Houston Partnership has released their 2016 Houston Employment Forecast report.

The collapse in crude prices has devastated the industry. Revenues for the ten largest exploration firms in Houston fell by $382 billion during the first three quarters 2015.

During the first six months of 2015, the fabricated metal and oil field equipment sectors lost a combined 14,500 jobs. Oil field services cut 9,500 jobs. The sector cut only 1,000 positions in the first six months of the year.

From peak to trough, the energy sector may cut as many as 19,000 local jobs this cycle ― a 16.5 percent reduction in the industry’s workforce.

​(The loss includes exploration and production, as well as oil field services, but it does not include oil field equipment manufacturing.)

Manufacturing lost 17,200 jobs through the first ten months of 2015, a 6.6 percent decline.

The decline has shown in foreign trade data, with exports of iron and steel products down 24.4 percent and industrial equipment down 9.8 percent through the first nine months of 2015.

Houston has likely seen the worst of the manufacturing layoffs this cycle, but the weakness will linger for several quarters. 

From peak to trough, the manufacturing sector will likely lose upwards of 30,000 jobs. 

The Partnership’s forecast calls for manufacturing to lose another 9,000 jobs in 2016.

Only 10 million sf were under construction in 3Q 2015, with 3.0 million scheduled for delivery by year-end. Nearly 8.0 million sf of sublease space has been thrown on the market, with another 2.0 million sf expected in early 2016.

The Partnership sees more positives than negatives in the overall construction outlook and forecasts the sector to add 7,000 jobs in 2016.

Home values in Houston have risen 36 percent over the past five years. In boom years, retail adds 8,000 to 12,000 jobs; in mediocre years, only 2,000 to 4,000. 

The forecast assumes 2016 will be neither a boom nor a mediocre year, and that the factors noted above will continue to drive retail. The forecast calls for the sector to create 5,000 retail jobs by the end of 2016.

Greater Houston Partnership
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land

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