Houston vs. Chicago: the ultimate showdownHouston vs. Chicago: the ultimate showdownhttps://www.recenter.tamu.edu/news/newstalk-texas/?Item=203532018-06-18T05:00:00Z2018-06-18T22:15:00Z

​​​​​​​Chart of population growth for Houston and Chicago.HOUSTON – In 2015, ​​Houston was predicted to overtake Chicago as the third largest city by 2025.

Now, based on 2017 growth, and with a gap of only 404,000 residents separating the cities, the Bayou City isn’t expected to surpass the Windy City until 2052.

But there’s a problem with these predictions: experts are using current data to infer the future without establishing what drives growth and then adjusting accordingly.

For example, predicting Houston’s future growth based on a few data points is like using the Astros record in August 2017 (10 wins, 17 losses) to predict how the team would finish the year (World Series Champions).

A more informed forecast would take into account all the factors and events that might impact the net natural rate of increase (births minus deaths) and net migration in the region—the two basic components of population growth.

Regardless, growth requires significant investments in the Bayou City to accommodate an additional future 400,000 residents.

The city will need to deal with issues of flooding, image, the restructuring of the oil industry, and threats to international trade.
Greater Houston Partnership
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
Demographics & Population
http://www.houston.org/pdf/research/quickview/Economy_at_a_Glance.pdfSee the full report at {Source}

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