Report: Austin population boom happening no matter what

AUSTIN – Even under the most pessimistic projections — if some sort of plague and economic slump were to take hold in the region — the Austin area’s population will still grow by more than 30 percent over the next 15 years, a report from the Urban Institute shows.

If migration and the birth rate are higher than expected, the Austin area could grow by more than 80 percent by 2030.

The report includes an interactive mapping element that lets readers select different projected birth, death and migration rates to see how demographics across the United States could be affected.

Here is how Austin’s population growth is expected to play out, using a range of projections:

•  Under a worst-case scenario with a low birth rate, a high death rate and a low migration rate, the Urban Institute projects the area’s population will increase by 30.5 percent, from 1.7 million in 2010 to 2.3 million by 2030.

•  With average birth, migration and death rates, the report projects the Austin area will increase its population by 55.3 percent, from 1.7 million in 2010 to 2.7 million in 2030.

•  At the high end of the spectrum, a scenario with a higher-than-average birth and migration rates and lower-than-average death rates, Austin could grow its population by 81.7 percent by 2030, with population jumping from 1.7 million in 2010 to 3.2 million in 2030.