West Houston to see worst of oil crash

​​HOUSTON – West Houston will likely be in for a rough year in 2016 and maybe more, according to the latest economic outlook.

At the West Houston Economic Development Summit on February 12, business leaders were presented with a sobering fact: 2016 will not be a good year for most, and the oil downturn that was previously limited to those in the energy industry will soon begin to spread.

"This is the year it’s going to catch up with many of you who are not in the energy industry," Bill Gilmer, director for the University of Houston’s Bauer Institute for Regional Forecasting, told the crowd, reiterating those in retail, commercial and residential real estate will especially be impacted.

The study did not go as far to call it a recession, noting that Houston did see a net jobs increase from December 2014 to December 2015; however, Gilmer did predict a moderate recession over the next two years due to the drilling downturn.

Nationally, the economy is strong, and some areas outside of West Houston, like East Houston, for example, are actually doing well.

"The west side of Houston is home to virtually all of the damage that will be done by the downturn," Gilmer said.

Specifically, Gilmer pointed to the $50 billion worth of construction underway in the downstream market, which is largely taking place on the east side of Houston. Projects like the Dow facility in Lake Jackson help buoy the regional economy along with diversity from other industries.

The most foreboding point of the study was the multifamily market. 

While industry experts say multifamily will weather the storm, economists from both the Greater Houston Partnership and Gilmer predict that apartments and condos are overbuilt in the city and that a drop in occupancy is already occurring in most submarkets.