Houston: NAI Partners Data InSight whitepaper series

HOUSTON – Houston’s annual job growth explained 51 percent of the variation in annual net absorption of office space from 1999-2014 according to a report from NAI Partners.

The April 2015 Data InSight report from NAI attempts to forecast how commercial real estate in Houston will perform in 2015 given this historical relationship and recent shocks in oil prices.

Can job growth still predict demand for commercial real estate given the recent decline in oil prices? Could the backdrop of positive economic growth offset the negative impact of oil prices?

Analyses reveal a positive relationship between job growth and bet office absorption, but not industrial space.

For the most likely forecast of 52,600 new jobs in Houston in 2015, NAI predicts office absorption to be about 3,617,000 sf.

Thus, while growth in jobs and office absorption will likely slow in 2015 compared to 2014, it is unlikely that they will turn negative in the face of lower oil prices.

See updated office, industrial, multifamily at Houston Market Research.

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