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Monthly Review of the Texas EconomyMonthly Review of the Texas EconomyAli Anari2020-06-23T05:00:00Ztechnical-report
Texas Economy
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The Texas economy is beginning to recover from COVID-19 pandemic and low oil prices. Whether the recovery will be a quick V-shaped or a slower U-shaped will be known in coming months. The state's economy lost 917,800 nonagricultural jobs from May 2019 to May 2020, an annual decline of 7.2 percent, smaller than the nation's employment decline of 11.7 percent (Table 1 and Figure 1). The nongovernment sector lost 853,600 jobs, an annual decline of 7.9 percent, also lower than the nation's employment decline of 12.7 percent in the private sector (Table 1). Texas and U.S. annual job loss rates in May 2020 were both smaller than their April rates, making May the beginning of economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic (Figure 1).

Texas' seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in May 2020 was 13 percent, higher than the 3.4 percent in May 2019. The nation's rate increased from 3.6 to 13.3 percent (Table 1).
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Texas Employment Percentage Change by Industry

​​Table 2 shows Texas industries ranked by employment percentage change from May 2019 to May 2020. All Texas industries except financial activities industry had fewer jobs in May 2020 than in May 2019. Annual job loss rates varied from 0.94 percent in transportation, warehousing, and utilities to 26.93 percent in the state’s leisure and hospitality industry. Figures 2 to 13 (shown in full report)​​ show trends in employment percentage change by industry.


Texas Job Shares by ​Industry and t​​he Government Sector

Table 3 shows Texas industries and the state’s government sector ranked by their shares of Texas jobs in May 2020. Of the 11,842,500 nonagricultural jobs, the highest percentage of jobs was in the government sector followed by trade, professional and business services, education and health services, leisure and hospitality, and manufacturing. Since May 2019, the government sector; trade; professional and business services; education and health services; manufacturing; financial activities; construction; and transportation, warehousing, and utilities have expanded their shares of Texas employment at the expense of leisure and hospitality, other services, mining and logging, and information. Figures 14 to 25 (shown in full report)​​ show trends in shares of total Texas jobs by industry.


​​Contributions of Texas Industries to Texas Emp​loyment Percentage Change

The statewide employment percentage change from May 2019 to May 2020 is the weighted average of employment growth or decline rates of all Texas industries for the period. Weights are shares of jobs by industry. The positive or negative contribution of each industry to the statewide employment percentage change is equal to the employment growth or decline rate in that industry multiplied by its share of Texas jobs. Table 4 shows Texas industries and the state’s government sector ranked by their contributions to Texas employment percentage change from May 2019 to May 2020. Financial activities was the state’s only industry that had a positive contribution. The rest of the state’s industries had negative contributions. Figures 26 to 37 (shown in full report)​​ show trends in contributions of Texas industries to Texas job growth or decline rates.


Employmen​​t Percentage Changes by Texas Metropolitan Areas

All Texas metros had fewer jobs in May 2020 than in May 2019 (Table 5). College-Station-Bryan had the smallest employment decline followed by Tyler, Abilene, Texarkana, Sherman-Denison, Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, Dallas-Plano-Irving, San Antonio-New Braunfels, and McAllen-Edinburg-Mission. Figures 38 to 63 (shown in full report)​​ show trends in annual employment growth or decline rates for the state’s metropolitan areas.

 

​​​Texas Job Shares by Metropolitan Area

Table 6 shows Texas metropolitan areas ranked by their shares of total Texas jobs in May 2020. Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land had the largest share of Texas jobs followed by Dallas-Plano-Irving, Austin-Round Rock, Fort Worth-Arlington, San Antonio-New Braunfels, El Paso, and McAllen-Edinburg-Mission. Figures 64 to 89 (shown in full report)​​ show trends in metropolitan shares of total Texas jobs.

 

Contributions t​​o Texas Metropolitan Areas to Texas Employment Percentage Change

TThe statewide employment percentage change from May 2019 to May 2020 is the weighted average of employment growth or decline rates of all Texas metros for the period. Weights are shares of jobs by area. The positive or negative contribution of each metro to the statewide employment percentage change is equal to the employment growth or decline rate in that area multiplied by its share of Texas jobs. Table 7 shows Texas metros ranked by their contributions to Texas’ employment decline from May 2019 to May 2020. Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land accounted for the largest percentage of the state’s employment decline rate followed by Dallas-Plano-Irving, Austin-Round Rock, Fort Worth-Arlington, San Antonio-New Braunfels, El Paso, Corpus Christi, and McAllen-Edinburg-Mission. Figures 90 to 115 (shown in full report)​​ show trends in contributions of Texas metros to total Texas job growth rates.

 

​Unemployment Rate by Metropolitan Area

The state’s actual unemployment rate in May 2020 was 12.7 percent. Amarillo had the lowest unemployment rate followed by College Station-Bryan, Abilene, Lubbock, Sherman-Denison, Waco, and Wichita Falls (Table 8).

 

Employment Percentage Changes by Indust​ry in Largest Texas Metropolitan Areas

Table 9 shows annual growth or decline rates of employment by industry in the six largest Texas metropolitan areas from May 2019 to May 2020. The state’s leisure and hospitality industry is bearing the brunt of the COVID-19 pandemic in the major metro areas followed by other services and education and health services. ​​

 

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Previous reports available: 

Digital and Print1862https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/technical-report/monthly-review-of-the-texas-economy https://assets.recenter.tamu.edu/Documents/Articles/1862.pdf

 

 

Monthly Review of the Texas EconomyMonthly Review of the Texas EconomyTexas Economy
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