|San Antonio-New Braunfels Housing Affordability Outlook||San Antonio-New Braunfels Housing Affordability Outlook||Clare Losey, Harold D. Hunt, and Reece Neathery||2022-11-04T05:00:00Z||technical-report||Residential|
Affordability continued to decline in 3Q2022 amid higher mortgage interest rates and still-elevated home prices. Although home price appreciation declined from record highs observed in the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, year-over-year (YOY) growth in both the median and first-quartile sales price remained higher than average, at 11.5 percent and 10.9 percent, respectively (Figure 1 and Table 1).1 The significant YOY increase in family income followed years of modest rises (Table 2). While the rise in median family income (12.7 percent) outpaced the growth in median home price, the substantial uptick in mortgage rates essentially offset the effect of higher median family income.
The rapid rise in mortgage interest rates in the last two quarters diminished home purchasing-potential. Rates averaged 5.62 percent in 3Q2022, up considerably from 1Q2022 and slightly from 2Q2022, which averaged 3.82 and 5.27 percent, respectively (Figure 2). All other things being equal, lower (higher) mortgage interest rates translate into lower (higher) monthly mortgage payments and ease (diminish) purchase affordability. The Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to continue to raise interest rates over the near-term to reduce inflationary pressures, which will likely prompt additional increases in mortgage interest rates. For more information on the effect of mortgage interest rates on purchase affordability, read "How Higher Interest Rates Affect Homebuying."
1 The first quartile reflects the lowest-priced 25 percent of homes sold in a particular geography. The first-quartile sales price represents the highest home price among those lowest-priced 25 percent of homes sold. If the price of the lowest 25 percent of homes sold ranges from $100,000 to $150,000, then the first-quartile sales price would be $150,000.
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Previous reports online:
2022: 1Q2022, 2Q2022
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