|Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington Housing Affordability Outlook||Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington Housing Affordability Outlook||Clare Losey, Harold D. Hunt, and Reece Neathery||2022-05-05T05:00:00Z||technical-report||Residential|
The first quarter saw an uptick in both the median sales price and first-quartile sales price for the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington MSA (Figure 1).1 The year-over-year (YOY) growth in median sales price and first-quartile sales price in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington MSA measured 21.8 percent and 22.9 percent, respectively, significantly higher than average YOY growth for the first quarter (Table 1). The median sales price measured $375,000, while the first-quartile sales price measured $290,000. Meanwhile, median family income grew a robust 9.4 percent from 2021 to 2022 (Table 2). However, despite strong growth in family income, the more substantial increase in home prices will continue to squeeze purchase affordability, the ability of a household to buy a home.
Meanwhile, mortgage interest rates remained low by historical standards, averaging 3.82 percent in 1Q2022(Figure 2). All other things being equal, lower mortgage interest rates translate into lower monthly mortgage payments and ease purchase affordability. The Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to continue to raise the federal funds rate over the near-term to reduce inflationary pressures, which will likely prompt additional increases in mortgage interest rates. The average rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased nearly 1 percentage point in March, rising from 3.76 percent to 4.67 percent. For more information on the effect of mortgage interest rates on purchase affordability, please see “How Higher Interest Rates Affect Homebuying."
1 The first quartile reflects the lowest-priced 25 percent of homes sold in a particular geography. The first-quartile sales price represents the highest home price among those lowest-priced 25 percent of homes sold. If the price of the lowest 25 percent of homes sold ranges from $100,000 to $150,000, then the first-quartile sales price would be $150,000.
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