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Texas Weekly Leading IndexTexas Weekly Leading IndexLuis B. Torres2021-09-10T05:00:00Zspecial-report
Texas Economy
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​​Based on data ​through August 28, 2021

The Texas Weekly Leading Index increased for a third straight week the week ending Aug. 28 (Figures 1 and 2). The index is pointing toward higher future economic activity as the reopening of the economy continues. Unfortunately, after months of declines in COVID-19 cases the number of new cases has risen due to the presence of the Delta variant that has shown to be more contagious. This has increased uncertainty surrounding the end of the pandemic.

The index's increase was mainly due to a decrease in the number of people filing for unemployment insurance, and it was offset by a decrease in the number of new business applications. Even though the number of new business applications fell, the number remains high, signaling business activity remains strong.

Texas' initial jobless claims decreased for six straight weeks to 20,562 the week ending Aug. 28. Also, continuing unemployment claims decreased for two straight weeks to 165,799 the week ending Aug. 21. The labor market continues to gradually recover as the transitions from unemployment to employment have likely been reduced by the effect of the pandemic on women, who were more likely than men to leave their jobs to take care of children because of in-person school and daycare closures. This outcome should be reverted once schools and daycares return to in-person learning and caregiving during the fall. Other possible factors affecting the transition from unemployment to employment could be the lingering pandemic, early retirement, and the possibility that people are taking time to consider new career paths. Record job openings suggest that while the economy is still short of pre-COVID employment levels, it is not due to insufficient labor demand.

The outlook for the reopening and recovery of the state's economy took somewhat of a hit as the number of new cases continued trending upward the week ending Aug. 28 (Figure 3). Currently, 56.9 percent of the state's population 12 years and older is fully vaccinated based on the most current data (08/30/2021) from the Texas Department of State Health Services.

In addition, an increase in the real price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil contributed to the increase in the weekly leading index. In contrast, an increase in the real rate for the ten-year Treasury bill (which continues to exhibit a negative return in real terms) offset the increase in the index.

Based on both the Texas Weekly Leading Index and U.S. employment numbers from August, which increased by 0.2 percent over July, Texas nonfarm employment could increase 0.2 percent in August. If so, the Texas economy could gain around 25,000 jobs in August, reaching 12.7 million. In a span of 16 months the Texas economy could recoup around 1.2 million of the 1.4 million jobs lost between March and April 2020.

The rebound in Texas' economic activity could be hindered by possible upsurges in COVID-19 cases as economic and social activity increases. Further waves of infections can reverse increased mobility and spending, affecting the path to recovery.
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Figure 2Figure 3

About T​​his​​ Report

The COVID-19 health crisis is unlike any crisis the economy ​has experienced before. The economy is currently going through a self-induced, sudden-stop to contain and stabilize the spread of the virus and save lives. The size of the economic shock will likely result in losses that overshadow losses from the 2008-09 financial crisis.

The Texas economy is not immune to the pandemic. In fact, the state's economy will be hit even harder than the world and the rest of the United States due to the simultaneous downturn in the oil industry.

This crisis has created a need for up-to-date economic indicators that can help forecast economic­ changes. The Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University has constructed a high-frequency economic activity index for Texas that estimates the timing and length of future upswings and downturns on a weekly basis.

New weekly data series (also called high-frequency data) and new methodologies to seasonally adjust the data on a weekly basis have allowed for the development of weekly coincident and leading economic indicators. The Center has a successful track record in estimating monthly residential and nonresidential construction leading indexes for Texas. Both indexes have proven useful in signaling directional changes and forecasting key indicators like single family home sales, apartment vacancy rates, and commercial vacancy rates.

The Center evaluates economic data to determine:

  • economic significance,
  • statistical adequacy (in describing the economic process in question),
  • timing at expansion and recessions,
  • conformity to historical business cycles,
  • smoothness, and
  • currency or timeliness (how promptly the statistics are available).

However, the indexes do have some weaknesses. Underlying indicators are subject to revision, and while errors often cancel out across indicators, revisions impact the index and future monitoring of business cycles. In addition, although leading indicators often show the direction of a business cycle, they do not measure the magnitude of the change.

Even with these caveats, leading indicators are useful for measuring business cycles. Seven variables were evaluated for this report. Four (business applications, high-propensity business applications, business applications with planned wages, and business applications from corporations) are business market variables that are tied to state business activity. One variable, weekly initial unemployment insurance claims, is tied to state employment.  Another, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) real oil price deflated by the all-urban consumer price index, is related to the oil industry. The last variable, the real ten-year Treasury bill estimated using same-period inflation expectations, represents the cost of credit in the economy.

Based on statistically reliable criteria, four variables were selected as economic activity leading indicators: business applications, initial unemployment insurance claims, real WTI oil price, and real ten-year Treasury bill. These variables demonstrated a significant leading relationship with Texas nonfarm employment. All other variables were found not to be statistically valuable or to perform below the business applications variable for the leading index.

Detecting turning points in any leading index on a month-to-month basis is difficult, because not all downturn (upturn) movements point toward recessions (expansions). It's even more difficult to do on a weekly basis. The Center has converted the weekly leading economic activity index into a monthly leading index to evaluate its predictive usefulness.

Based on the National Bureau of Economic Research methodology, Texas nonfarm employment and the Dallas Federal Reserve Texas coincident indicator are used as references of peaks and troughs to measure the state's business cycle (see table). This makes it possible to see if the weekly economic leading indicator can predict changes in Texas business cycles.


The Texas weekly leading index signaled a directional change in October 2007, 11 months before the prolonged downturn in employment that started in August 2008. Similarly, it signaled a recovery turning point in February 2009, 11 months before employment turned toward recovery in December 2009.

In addition, it predicted turning points and duration of expansion and contraction more accurately than another institution's leading indicator–the one produced by the St. Louis Federal Reserve (Figure 4).


Overall, the leading index is regarded as a good indicator to predict turning points in Texas employment, even leading both the Dallas Federal Reserve's coincident and leading indicators for the state's economy.  

One major problem in evaluating the index was the short time period. For a more accurate evaluation of business cycle relationships, it's best to study the relationships over many business cycles. Because the predictive ability of the leading index was evaluated over a short time, it's possible that the relationship might not hold in the future. Thus, the leading index for economic activity will be best evaluated based on its ability to lead Texas employment in the future.

_____________

Dr. Torres (ltorres@mays.tamu.edu) is a research economist with the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University.

​​Previous reports available: 

Based on data through:​

Aug. 21, 2021​
Aug. 14, 2021​
Aug. 7, 2021​
July 31, 2021​
July 24, 2021​
July 17, 2021
July 10, 2021​
July 3, 2021
June 26, 2021​
June 19, 2021​
June 12, 2021​
June 5, 2021​

Digital and Print2273https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/special-report/COVID-19-Impact-Projections https://assets.recenter.tamu.edu/Documents/Articles/2273.pdf

 

 

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