{{titleBar.title}}

{{titleBar.tagline}}

 

 

Texas Weekly Leading IndexTexas Weekly Leading IndexLuis B. Torres2022-01-12T06:00:00Zspecial-report
Texas Economy
Click here to receive email notificat​ions each time this report is published.

​​Based on data ​through Dec. 11, 2021

The Texas Weekly Leading Index increased for a third straight week the week ending Dec. 11 (Figures 1 and 2). It points toward higher future economic activity as the economy continues to recover from the pandemic. 

COVID-19 cases reached a trough at the end of November and are expected to increase in the coming weeks because of the Omicron variant and a possible outbreak.

The index's increase was mainly due to an increase in the number of new business applications and a decrease in the number of people filing for unemployment insurance. The increase in the number of new business applications signals strong future business activity.

The outlook for the reopening and recovery of the state's economy took somewhat of a hit as new cases reached a trough and are now increasing (Figure 3). Currently, 67.7 percent of the state's population 12 years and older is fully vaccinated based on the most current data (Dec. 19, 2021) from the Texas Department of State Health Services.

In addition, an increase in the real price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contributed to the increase. In contrast, an increase in the real rate for the ten-year Treasury bill (which continues to exhibit a negative return in real terms) countered the increase in the index.

Future Texas economic growth could be hindered by possible upsurges in COVID-19 cases as economic and social activity increases. Further waves of infections can reverse increased mobility and spending, affecting the path to recovery.

​​​​​​Figure 1. Texas Weekly Leading Indicator​​

Figure 2. Texas Weekly Leading IndicatorFigure 3. Texas Unemployment Initial Claims

About T​​his​​ Report

The COVID-19 health crisis is unlike any crisis the economy ​has experienced before. The economy is currently going through a self-induced, sudden-stop to contain and stabilize the spread of the virus and save lives. The size of the economic shock will likely result in losses that overshadow losses from the 2008-09 financial crisis.

The Texas economy is not immune to the pandemic. In fact, the state's economy will be hit even harder than the world and the rest of the United States due to the simultaneous downturn in the oil industry.

This crisis has created a need for up-to-date economic indicators that can help forecast economic­ changes. The Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University has constructed a high-frequency economic activity index for Texas that estimates the timing and length of future upswings and downturns on a weekly basis.

New weekly data series (also called high-frequency data) and new methodologies to seasonally adjust the data on a weekly basis have allowed for the development of weekly coincident and leading economic indicators. The Center has a successful track record in estimating monthly residential and nonresidential construction leading indexes for Texas. Both indexes have proven useful in signaling directional changes and forecasting key indicators like single family home sales, apartment vacancy rates, and commercial vacancy rates.

The Center evaluates economic data to determine:

  • economic significance,
  • statistical adequacy (in describing the economic process in question),
  • timing at expansion and recessions,
  • conformity to historical business cycles,
  • smoothness, and
  • currency or timeliness (how promptly the statistics are available).

However, the indexes do have some weaknesses. Underlying indicators are subject to revision, and while errors often cancel out across indicators, revisions impact the index and future monitoring of business cycles. In addition, although leading indicators often show the direction of a business cycle, they do not measure the magnitude of the change.

Even with these caveats, leading indicators are useful for measuring business cycles. Seven variables were evaluated for this report. Four (business applications, high-propensity business applications, business applications with planned wages, and business applications from corporations) are business market variables that are tied to state business activity. One variable, weekly initial unemployment insurance claims, is tied to state employment.  Another, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) real oil price deflated by the all-urban consumer price index, is related to the oil industry. The last variable, the real ten-year Treasury bill estimated using same-period inflation expectations, represents the cost of credit in the economy.​​

Based on statistically reliable criteria, four variables were selected as economic activity leading indicators: business applications, initial unemployment insurance claims, real WTI oil price, and real ten-year Treasury bill. These variables demonstrated a significant leading relationship with Texas nonfarm employment. All other variables were found not to be statistically valuable or to perform below the business applications variable for the leading index.

Detecting turning points in any leading index on a month-to-month basis is difficult, because not all downturn (upturn) movements point toward recessions (expansions). It's even more difficult to do on a weekly basis. The Center has converted the weekly leading economic activity index into a monthly leading index to evaluate its predictive usefulness.

Based on the National Bureau of Economic Research methodology, Texas nonfarm employment and the Dallas Federal Reserve Texas coincident indicator are used as references of peaks and troughs to measure the state's business cycle (see table). This makes it possible to see if the weekly economic leading indicator can predict changes in Texas business cycles.

Table of Chronology of Texas Business Cycle

The Texas weekly leading index signaled a directional change in October 2007, 11 months before the prolonged downturn in employment that started in August 2008. Similarly, it signaled a recovery turning point in February 2009, 11 months before employment turned toward recovery in December 2009.

In addition, it predicted turning points and duration of expansion and contraction more accurately than another institution's leading indicator–the one produced by the St. Louis Federal Reserve (Figure 4).

Figure 4. Texas Business Cycle

Overall, the leading index is regarded as a good indicator to predict turning points in Texas employment, even leading both the Dallas Federal Reserve's coincident and leading indicators for the state's economy.  

One major problem in evaluating the index was the short time period. For a more accurate evaluation of business cycle relationships, it's best to study the relationships over many business cycles. Because the predictive ability of the leading index was evaluated over a short time, it's possible that the relationship might not hold in the future. Thus, the leading index for economic activity will be best evaluated based on its ability to lead Texas employment in the future.

_____________

Dr. Torres (ltorres@mays.tamu.edu) is a research economist with the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University.

​​Previous reports available: 

Based on data through:​

Dec. 4, 2021​
Nov. 27, 2021​
Nov. 20, 2021​
Nov. 13, 2021
Nov. 6, 2021​
Oct. 30, 2021​
Oct. 23, 2021​
Oct. 16, 2021​
Oct. 9, 2021​
Oct. 2, 2021​
Sept. 25, 2021​
Sept. 18, 2021​

Digital and Print2273https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/special-report/COVID-19-Impact-Projections https://assets.recenter.tamu.edu/Documents/Articles/2273.pdf

 

 

Texas Weekly Leading IndexTexas Weekly Leading IndexTexas Economy
GP0|#2e230374-403a-4cca-82b8-5f9aff08c2ca;L0|#02e230374-403a-4cca-82b8-5f9aff08c2ca|Torres;GTSet|#09a90ae9-5078-4623-b9a4-e3be6b49b0adspecial-report
GP0|#2c6032af-a66a-4b72-84fb-f5e4ccd5cf22;L0|#02c6032af-a66a-4b72-84fb-f5e4ccd5cf22|COVID-19;GTSet|#57d56836-73e8-45f7-b61c-9193be1c0a6e;GP0|#6511808f-bf90-41b6-ba8f-a541fdfb9605;L0|#06511808f-bf90-41b6-ba8f-a541fdfb9605|Coronavirus;GPP|#2c6032af-a66a-4b72-84fb-f5e4ccd5cf22;GP0|#ffeb19fe-8cd0-4b00-8392-b4af2ed9355d;L0|#0ffeb19fe-8cd0-4b00-8392-b4af2ed9355d|Texas;GP0|#cab5ff06-c676-4d4c-abcc-85aa4d483476;L0|#0cab5ff06-c676-4d4c-abcc-85aa4d483476|economy;GP0|#b81a6008-4cd3-46f6-a158-9a00fd0d49ed;L0|#0b81a6008-4cd3-46f6-a158-9a00fd0d49ed|impact;GP0|#4c0408d1-3c34-4819-ab85-bb075ef02861;L0|#04c0408d1-3c34-4819-ab85-bb075ef02861|projections;GP0|#94904195-a8b6-42f2-a5cf-3ddc4ccd9226;L0|#094904195-a8b6-42f2-a5cf-3ddc4ccd9226|pandemic

 

 

2019-20 Annual Report2019-20 Annual Reporthttps://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/booklet/2019-20-AnnualReport-2295David S. Jones
Texas Quarterly Apartment ReportTexas Quarterly Apartment Reporthttps://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/research-article/TexasQuarterlyApartmentReport-2242Luis B. Torres, Harold D. Hunt, Tyler Rogers, and Weiling Yan
Texas Real Estate Research Center: 50 YearsTexas Real Estate Research Center: 50 Yearshttps://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/book/real-estate-center-50-yearsBy David Jones
Texas Real Estate Research Center's Top Ten for DecemberTexas Real Estate Research Center's Top Ten for Decemberhttps://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/reference/Real Estate Center top ten
Texas Housing InsightTexas Housing Insighthttps://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/technical-report/Texas-Housing-InsightLuis B. Torres, Wesley Miller, Jacob Straus, and Brendan Harrison
Total RECall December 2021Total RECall December 2021https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/other/Total-Recall-December-2021David S. Jones